Some Are Starting to Get It

Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder, of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavaria’s sister to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU):

According to my forecasts, Greece should leave the euro zone by the end of the year.  Each new aid measure, every easing of the demands, would be the wrong path.  Athens must become an example demonstrating that this euro zone also has teeth.  At some point, everyone has to move away from mommy.  For Greece, that time has come.

What he said.

A Quibble that Tells the Truth

This is from the White House’s very own blog, from the personal keyboard of Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers:

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3% in July (or, more precisely, the rate rose from 8.217% in June to 8.254% in July).  Acting BLS Commissioner John Galvin noted in his statement that the unemployment rate was “essentially unchanged” from June to July.

And so is our economic recovery “essentially unchanged” from 2009 to 2012.

You Can’t Build This, Either

Paul H Rubin, Professor of Economics at Emory University, had some thoughts on President Obama’s “You didn’t build that” oratory.  After giving Obama the benefit of the doubt and allowing that he really meant, without denigrating the accomplishments of entrepreneurs and other businessmen, that government needed to help private enterprise with infrastructure, Professor Rubin added a few items of interest in the infrastructure milieu.

  • the Obama administration, in its first three years, adopted 106 major regulations that cost over $100 million, compared with 28 such regulations in the Bush the Younger administration, and it has 144 more in the pipeline.

Of more immediate impact, with regard to the infrastructure of roads and bridges, the administration’s attitude toward other necessary components of our transportation infrastructure is clear.  It has

  • refused to allow a private company to build the Keystone XL pipeline
  • reduced permits for offshore drilling
  • slow-walked permits for drilling on Federal land
  • increased EPA regulation of pollutants, well past the point of diminishing returns, yet
  • committed to spend billions on California’s riderless bullet train to nowhere

Concerning another area of necessary infrastructure, access to capital, there’re these:

  • regulations needed to implement Dodd–Frank are not even being written, negatively impacting business’ ability to reasonably predict their fiscal future—so some won’t lend, and others won’t borrow.
  • increased minimum wage discourages hiring entry-level workers, or older workers into low-value jobs
  • Obamacare increases uncertainty regarding future labor health-related costs

And so on.  RTWT.

An Influence on Bank Lending

Professor Alan Blinder, of Princeton University, has another laugher in The Wall Street Journal.  This time he wants the Fed to “encourage” private bank lending—in an environment where the intended market is vary chary of taking on debt, new or additional—but without “without interfering in private credit-allocation decisions.”

His idea is stimulated by a scheme (in both the British and American English senses) of the Bank of England’s, itself generated out of the premise that UK banks aren’t lending enough to suit the government suits.  Essentially, Blinder wants to ape the BoE scheme of giving private lenders preferential rates on central bank lending according to how much lending the private lenders are doing.

Hmm….

First, Blinder operates from a false premise.  It’s impossible for government to “encourage” without “interfering in private decisions.”  The whole point of government encouragement to execute exactly that interference.  To claim that compliance is voluntary and so not interference is disingenuous sophistry.  Banks are out to make money for their owners, just as any business must—its fiduciary duty drives it to—make money for its owners.  The offer of a goodie for doing what government wants is no less a cudgel than providing a penalty for not doing.

Second, Blinder gives his game away in the penultimate paragraph of his piece:

Last, but certainly not least, there is the crucial question of what types of bank lending to subsidize.

Of course, the sole purpose of a subsidy is to drive the recipient to a government-desired behavior.  The whole point of government encouragement to execute exactly that interference.

The Obama Debt Plan

John Hinderaker, of Power Line, commented on President Obama’s plan to pay down the national debt, as demonstrated by Obama’s mid-year budget plan update.  Obama also is campaigning on his plan to “pay down the debt in a balanced way.”

Here’s what his “balanced plan” does to our national debt, illustrated by the following graph from Power Line, and The Washington Times.

That’s a rather startling increase in the size of this paid-down debt.  “But wait,” some of you might object.  “What about the debt as a per cent of our GDP, a perhaps better way to assess the size of our debt?”

Our 2011 GDP was some $15 trillion, and it’s projected to be in the neighborhood of $24 trillion by 2021 (my calculation based on data in Table 1-6 of the CBO’s report “Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021.”

That makes our national debt 98.7% of GDP in 2011, and 105.8% of GDP by 2021.  This is how Obama intends to “pay down the debt in a balanced way” via Obamanomics’ New Math.