Japan’s Sovereign Debt

With our just completed tax “deal” adding $4 trillion to our national debt by 2022, I thought it might be interesting to look at the debt load of another country that used to be an economic powerhouse, but whose economy has been stagnant while its population ages: Japan.  In no particular order, we see the following:

  • Japanese administrations have accumulated debt worth $14.6 trillion, roughly 230% of GDP.
  • Since the 1990s, administrations have bailed out failed banks and insurance companies.
  • Tax revenues are less than half of expenditures.
  • Interest on Japanese debt has been held to 0.75% by the Bank of Japan, their central bank.
  • Since 2011, the BoJ has fed emergency programs a total of ¥213 trillion ($1.2 trillion).
  • The BoJ Governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, acknowledges
    • At the moment, the effect of our monetary policy in stimulating economic growth is very limited.
    • Fully one-quarter of the government’s overall budget currently goes toward servicing debt.  Were Tokyo forced to pay higher interest rates, it’s mountain of debt would grow even more rapidly.
  • The new Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, wants more of the same: a new ¥14.4 trillion ($120 billion) economic stimulus program, this time for the construction sector.  At the same time, Abe wants Shirakawa to pump unlimited cash into the economy.

This graph illustrates:

Any of that look familiar?

The data and graph are via Spiegel Online International.

Now that the Bill Has Been Passed

…and we can see what is in it, the pork for President Barack Obama’s paymasters that is in it is quite impressive.  Here are some, in no particular order.  Enjoy the sausage.

  • Accelerated tax write-off for owners of NASCAR tracks: $78 million
  • Tax credit for companies operating in American Samoa: $62 million
  • Distillers rum tax rebate: $222 million
  • Film and television producers expense the first $15 million of production costs incurred in the US ($20 million incurred in economically depressed areas in the United States): $430 million
  • Wind production tax credit: $12 billion
  • Cellulosic biofuels tax credit continued and expanded to include producers of “algae-based fuel:” $59 million
  • Biodiesel and “renewable diesel” tax credit: $2.2 billion
  • Plug-in motorcycles tax credit: $7 million
  • Energy-efficient appliances tax credit: $650 million
  • Energy-efficient homes tax credit: $154 million

Most of these seem like chump change, but they, with other inclusions, sum to $40 billion of pork in the tax “deal.”

Whining

Here’s Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, KY) on leadership in the context of the coming debt ceiling fiasco.

Now, the question is, will the president lead?  Why should we have to be bringing him to the table?  Why isn’t he leading us in the direction of beginning to solve our long-term debt and deficit problem?  It’s perplexing to me that the president of the United States, elected to lead the country, is so reluctant to engage on the most important issue confronting our future.

In McConnell’s defense, this is a typical Republican whine.

When are you guys going to stop whining about the President being mean and supply your own leadership?  When are you guys going to stop surrendering the field to the Progressives, put up your own plans, push for them, talk to us Americans in your constituencies and your neighboring Democratic constituencies, and be leaders yourselves?

Quit worrying about bringing the guy who sits in the President’s chair to the table—move on without him.  Pass the relevant bills in the House, and call out the Progressives in the Senate and the White House over their intransigence in refusing to be part of the solution.  Show some responsibility—and take the initiative from the Progressives.

Or are you really so used to your status that none of you can conceive of actual Republican leadership?

The Spending Cuts Achieved by the Tax “Deal”

Here, in no particular order, are some.

  • tax subsidies for special business interests:
    • wind tax credit $12.1 billion
    • tax break for cellulosic ethanol—$59 million
    • tax break for impoverished producers of Hollywood—$248 million
  • extending extra jobless benefits for another year—$30 billion

Oh, wait—those weren’t cuts….

Just to put a cherry on top, the Congressional Budget Office scores the Senate bill as adding $4 trillion to the national debt by 2022.

Oops.

Update: Sorry, I don’t know what happened.  An earlier iteration of this post led with an inordinate amount of word processing commands before getting to the post itself.

The Next Financial Crisis

This is the coming debt ceiling fiasco.  Secretary Tim Geithner, in a carefully timed announcement, said just after Christmas that the United States would reach its borrowing limit by the end of the year.  He noted, though, that there were games that he could play with borrowing and accounting that could extend the actual default date for a couple of months.

President Barack Obama wants Congress to grant him unlimited authority to borrow—to spend—entirely on his own recognizance; to eliminate any formal debt ceiling, in other words.  As he announced in his victory speech late on New Year’s Day after having eviscerated the Republican Party, leaving it a faction-ridden, impotent, waste-of-space, he’s going to demand yet more tax increases and more spending in order to continue his Big Government “investments.”  The debt ceiling is just a useless distraction.

On the other hand, the Republicans can recover, if they can just stop whining about their defeats long enough to be a serious voice for those hired them to the Congressional job.  (As an aside, the whining may be an indication of the necessary shame for their repeated surrenders.)  Here’s a suggested agenda outline with which the Party can regain its dignity and integrity, and reconnect with its Conservative principles.  And if they can stick to this, and correct their communications failure, they’ll actually have a chance to implement much of this agenda and to recover enough politically to not get swept entirely from Congress in 2014 and to avoid continuing to abandon our country to one-party rule in 2016.

  1. Negotiate in public.  If they negotiate honestly and in accordance with the Conservative principles they claim to espouse, they’ll have nothing of which to be ashamed, and so no reason to hide in the shadows.
  2. Acknowledge whose money it is that the Federal government collects in taxes, whose money it is the Federal government spends, and who it is that must pay the debt the Federal government incurs when it borrows.  Challenge the Democrats to do the same.  Make frequent public notice of any equivocation.
  3. Say, in no uncertain terms, what is the fair share of taxes to be paid by all Americans.  Challenge the Democrats in the Congress and White House to do the same.  In 2009, the top 1% (those singled out by the just passed bill) paid 37% of all Federal income taxes, while the bottom 50% paid 2%.  Make frequent public notice of any equivocation.
  4. Negotiate—in public—to reform our tax code to meet those shares.
  5. Eliminate business taxes, and loopholes (credits, subsidies, etc) altogether.  It’s the individual American, in his role as customer, who pays most of those taxes, anyway, in the form of higher prices used to recoup some of that tax bill.  We don’t need to be taxed more than once.
  6. Say, in no uncertain terms, on what it is appropriate for the Federal government to be spending our money.  Challenge the Democrats to do the same.  Make frequent public notice of any equivocation.
  7. The Democrats will try to distract the public by attempting to pass legislation concerning immigration reform and gun control.  Republicans should ignore these distractions and force the Democrats to begin talking about the debt ceiling now, rather than waiting again until the last minute with their intent of using the then-approaching deadline to pressure another bad deal.
  8. Promptly pass a budget bill in the House that includes significant spending cuts (at a 3:1 ratio in spending cut dollars for debt ceiling raise dollars, which then defines the debt ceiling raise limit), offer separate legislation concerning tax reform (and pass it in the House), offer separate legislation concerning spending and borrowing reform (and pass it in the House), and offer legislation that raises the debt ceiling and that contains the budget’s spending cuts (and pass it in the House).  This legislation all can be completed from the House’s perspective within January, which would leave the decks clear for the debt ceiling fight.  All of this also will set a Republican-controlled baseline for the debt ceiling debate.
  9. Challenge Obama daily to join the debate on the debt ceiling.  Make frequent public notice of his refusal to deal with the problem.

We Americans have the critical role in this agenda, though.  We must hold the Republicans, and the Democrats, to this agenda, and we must loudly and enthusiastically call out any equivocation by individual Congressmen of either party and by the President, with particular emphasis on attempts to conduct the debt ceiling discussion in secret, and further on agenda items 2, 3, 6, and 9 above.  And in 2014 and 2016, fire those Congressmen who do insist on secrecy and equivocation.

I’ll have specific suggestions for continued tax reform and for spending cuts in later posts.