Another Advantage

…of low oil prices. Low prices are good for American consumers, especially in winter, when we not only have to drive, but we have to heat our homes.

Here’s an additional advantage, though.

But falling crude prices, US-led sanctions and diminished oil exploration threaten Russia’s oil industry and raise questions about its capacity to continue underwriting President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions at home and abroad.

Sanctions hurt Russia in a lot of economic ways, but that interference with Putin’s designs on eastern Europe can last only as long as the sanctions régime holds up. The falloff in exploration actually would work to Russia’s (and Iran’s) benefit, were it to last a long time, as that would diminish supply relative to demand, and so would raise oil prices.

That’s the kicker, though. Russia (and Iran) need $100+ oil in order to balance their budgets. Today’s $30 price, which I think will last at least into the intermediate future, if fracking and shale oil haven’t more permanently altered the supply availability environment, means that if Putin wants to continue his aggression against his neighbors, if he wants to continue to try to reconquer those nations and so reconstitute the old Soviet Union empire, he’ll have to borrow money to do so.

However, the only thing he has with which to repay such debt is revenue from oil and natural gas sales; the Russian economy is that dependent on extraction—it produces nothing else. At today’s prices, Putin will have to sell 3+ times as much oil as he would have had to just a couple of years ago. That creates a vicious circle: the more oil he produces and sells, the longer downward pressure on oil price continues.

And with Iranian production entering the market shortly, courtesy of Khamenei’s Best Bud President Barack Obama, those prices will be the recipient of additional downward pressure.

Arrogance of the PRC

Tsai Ing-wen, of the staunchly pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, resoundingly won election to be President of the Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China was not happy; the PRC has long wanted to get the island nation back under the mainland’s thumb.

In keeping with that, Li Zhenguang of the PRC’s Beijing Union University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies is insisting that

Beijing would be in no rush to engage with Ms Tsai. Rather…”It’s up to Tsai Ing-wen to decide whether she needs to initiate dialogue with the mainland. It’s up to her to find a formulation on cross-Strait ties that’s acceptable to the mainland.”

PRC arrogance has led them to get this backwards. It’s up to Xi Jinping, PRC President, to decide whether he wants honest relations with the RoC. It’s up to Xi to develop a cross-Strait policy that works for the RoC.

An Opportunity

…in the hands of competent authority.

ISIS fighters who fled to the terror group’s Iraqi stronghold of Mosul after being defeated in Ramadi were burned alive in the town square, sources told FoxNews.com, in an unmistakable message to fighters who may soon be defending the northern city from government forces.

Several residents of Mosul recounted the grisly story for stateside relatives, describing the deadly reception black clad jihadists got when they made it to Mosul….

Notice that. These were guys who’d either rejected the martyrdom of dying in place or who had recognized a lost position and departed in order to resume the fight in another place and time.

Here’s the opportunity: guys like this aren’t going to be allowed, in Tacitus’ words, to “fight and run away, To turn and fight another day.” No, they’ll die, anyway, a grisly death of the sort reserved for the enemies of the Daesh. So: make it easy for them to surrender rather than retreat.

Of course, that would require their Arab or Kurdish captors, of whatever sect of Islam, to treat them with some semblance of humanity. But that’s another opportunity, this time for Arabs and Kurds, of whatever sect of Islam, themselves.

Oil, the Saudis, and Iran

As global oil prices plunge to levels not seen in more than a decade—and Saudi Arabia and Iran threaten to further flood the market with cheap crude as part of their ongoing feud—the possibility of rock-bottom fuel prices appears to be a blessing for consumers.

What’s the downside of that? With our own restriction on exporting oil lifted, we’re also in a position to keep producing and keep selling. The low prices are good for American consumers; they’re an opportunity to expand our own market (the Saudis’ logic in maintaining production rates in the face of falling prices is sound), and thereby wean Europe off dependence on Russian oil exports; and low prices hurts…whom?

Low prices hurts our own oil producers, but an advantage of free market competition is that it leaves producers generally, including in particular oil producers, well positioned and well experienced in dealing with pricing vagaries. We’ll do fine in the price-competitive markets. The Saudis will survive the competition; their pricing needs against their population demands are rather small.

On the other hand, both Russia and Iran need $100+ oil (against last week’s close below $35, and a more stable $40-$50) to fund their adventures.

Keep the oil flooding. Throw us into that tar patch.

The Feds getting out of the way of natural gas exporting would pay similar, and similarly large, economic and political dividends.

Personal Secrecy vs National Security

The latest batch of 3,105 emails includes 275 documents upgraded to “classified” since they landed in the former Secretary’s personal inbox. That brings the total number of classified docs found in the emails to 1,274. A State Department official told Fox News on Thursday that two of those emails were upgraded to “secret,” while most of the others were upgraded to “confidential.”

Because Democratic Party Presidential candidate and then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s desire to keep her doings in our name as a Cabinet Secretary were more important than our national security.

We don’t need four more years of this from within the White House.