A Comment on Two Crises

Tax revenues, in the main, rose slightly as a fraction of GDP in wealthier nations despite the existence of the Wuhan Virus situation.

That surprise outcome underlines the novel nature of the economic contraction that accompanied the first surge of Covid-19 infections, and contrasts with the global financial crisis, when revenues fell as a share of economic output, an outcome more typical of recessions.

Novel indeed. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,

revenues across its 38 members rose to 33.5% of gross domestic product in 2020 from 33.4% in 2019. In the wake of the global financial crisis, revenues in 2009 fell to 31.8% of GDP from 32.6% of GDP in 2008.

And

In both instances, tax revenues and total economic output fell, but in 2020 the former declined less sharply than the latter.

These…economists…lay off the outcome of the 2020 situation to impacts on jobs.

Employment reductions in 2020 were concentrated at the lower end of the income distribution, as were falls in working hours.  This limited the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on revenues relative to the GFC [global financial crisis], in which job losses and reductions in working hours were more evenly spread.

But this is an outcome, and the economists of the OECD have mischaracterized the cause.

Look at the two examples the OECD cited for its comparison. The “global financial crisis” of 2009 was an economic event that was driven by purely economic factors—in that case, a credit crunch. The economic conditions of 2020 were driven, not by the prevalence of the Wuhan Virus, but by governments’ (over)reaction to the virus, not from the virus.

That political reaction—lockdowns, restrictions on movements, vaccine requirements levied on businesses by governments—differentially impacted economies in the manner indicated. Of course wealthier nations fared better than less wealthy ones. The less wealthy are far more dependent on those low-paying jobs.

Chit-Chat

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has some.

The secretary declined to detail potential US responses [to a Russian invasion of Ukraine] but said Mr Biden cited the potential for “high-impact economic measures.”

And

If Beijing were to decide to try to change the status quo [vis-à-vis the Republic of China] unilaterally by force, it would be a very serious mistake[.]

Sure. What exactly might those high-impact economic measures be, and on what basis does Blinken—or Biden-Harris, for that matter—think Putin cares about those, given that he’ll have Ukraine under his control? What evidence do Blinken or Biden-Harris offer to suggest Putin has cared overmuch about past “economic measures?”

Blinken and Biden-Harris are carefully silent on all of that.

Further, what do Blinken or Biden-Harris suggest would be their corrective action for Beijing’s “mistake?” What makes either of them think Xi Jinping would care about any correction, since he’d already be occupying the RoC?

More careful silence.

SALT Debates

Recall the SALT—State and Local Taxes—deduction, capped at $10,000 under the Trump income tax reform of a few years ago. Keep in mind the current debate among Progressive-Democrats about whether to raise the cap to $80,000, or higher, or eliminate the cap altogether. Set aside the debate centering on how much lifting the cap would aid essentially exclusively the Evil Rich vs most of those Evil Rich are heavy donors to various Progressive-Democrat politicians.

Consider instead that

some of America’s top earners—including private-equity managers and law firm partners—are already legally circumventing the cap on much of their income.
That is because state governments and the Trump administration blessed a cap workaround for owners of closely held businesses that is proliferating around the country.

That workaround is quite byzantine, too.

Here’s how it works. Normally, so-called pass-through businesses such as partnerships and S corporations don’t pay taxes themselves. Instead, they pass earnings through to their owners, who report income on individual tax returns. That subjects them to state individual income taxes—and the federal limit on deducting more than $10,000, created in the 2017 tax law.
Details vary by state, but the workaround flips that concept. The states impose taxes—often optional—on pass-through entities that are roughly equal to their owners’ state income taxes. Those taxes then get deducted before income flows to the business owners.
The laws then use tax credits or other mechanisms to absolve owners of their individual income-tax liabilities from business income. Thus, they satisfy state income-tax obligations without generating individual state income-tax deductions subject to the federal cap.

The SALT cap was well intended, if set too high at $10k. However, both the SALT and these convoluted workarounds illustrate the foolishness of using our tax code for social engineering and other political purposes instead of simply to raise revenue to cover the few Constitutionally mandated spending purposes.

One low, flat rate tax on income from all sources would simplify things immensely, with no negative impact on revenues for the government. And it would reduce the cost of compliance, with an associated reduction, however small, in end prices to consumers.

The Petra Principle

We’re hearing increasing numbers of reports (I know, it’s the NLMSM, but still) of turmoil in the Kamala Harris (D) Vice President staff, and we have a number of those staffers hitting the bricks.

One journalist, Miranda Devine, who writes for the New York Post, had a thought on that during a Fox News Primetime interview. She suggested that the Harris half of the Biden-Harris Presidency is

elevated above her ability….

And

[Y]ou want your Vice President to be ready to lead. She can’t even lead her own office.

Could be. Certainly, her performance is an illustration of what happens when someone is chosen for a job on the basis of her race and her sex and not on the basis of her talent or experience.

Advice

Rebecca Grant, DC-based national security analyst, had some for President Joe Biden (D) vis-à-vis Russian President Vladimir Putin on the subject of the latter’s threatened invasion of Ukraine. The venue for that advice is the summit between the two men that occurred yesterday.

Grant is naively optimistic, though.

The 30-nation Euro-Atlantic alliance is primed to deter and counter rash Russian actions.

No, it’s not. Johnson is just posturing, and the UK, a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum (as is Russia), already has betrayed Ukraine by acquiescing to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine rather than enforcing the Memorandum. Beyond that, Germany is already in the bag for Russia, and France is carefully quiet.

America is already involved.

Indeed, we are. We’re also a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum, and under the Obama-Biden administration, we’ve also betrayed Ukraine by declining to enforce that memorandum. Beyond that, ships in the Black Sea are ducks in a pond for any force on the shores.

Biden and NATO can do more to deter Putin.  Start with immediate air exercises in Ukraine with US and NATO aircraft.

It’s a start, did Biden have the integrity and moral courage to do so, but more is needed, a yet sterner test of Biden’s…strength. Economic sanctions are insufficient and unlikely to be enacted, anyway. The more that’s actually needed is moving US (because we can’t count on a NATO whose European members won’t even honor their own commitments to fund and equip the alliance) troops into Poland, south toward Ukraine and north toward Kaliningrad, and moving US naval forces to within air strike range of Kaliningrad.

Grant closed her advice with this:

Heat up one tank engine and we’ll know about it.

Certainly. But what will Biden do about it? Grant opened her piece with this:

Ukraine’s borders are a parking lot for Russian tanks, trucks, and artillery ready for a three-pronged blitzkrieg.

Even after that first tank has lit off and crossed the border, that parking lot, for the next number of days, will remain a parking lot of targets. Von Moltke learned that problem in 1914, and even though Putin’s generals likely will have learned from that, the same or worse bottlenecks exist in western Russia and eastern Ukraine.

Biden is unlikely to do any of that, though. He got his marching orders from Putin via Colonial Pipeline, and he already has kowtowed to Putin via Nordstream 2.

Biden will only kowtow again.

In any event, we’ll be hearing, today and in the coming days, the claims of the two participants. We’ll learn empirically, in the coming weeks and months, the outcome of the summit.