Another Government Mandate

Last December, the Director of the Labor Department’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs, Patricia Shiu, proposed, in all seriousness, a regulation requiring companies, apparently with 50 or more employees, to adopt a 7% hiring quota for disabled job applicants or be debarred from doing business with the federal government.  Note that this isn’t 7% of the total number of employees—Ms Shiu is a better micromanager than that.  This is a quota of 7% in each separate job category: “one or more jobs with similar content, wages rates, and opportunities.”

Moreover, Shiu’s rule attempts to require companies to encourage all job applicants to label themselves as “disabled” prior to being hired—apparently without any screening of applications or applicants for accuracy of the claim—and to require companies to engage in an ongoing compliance regime: companies must encourage all employees “to label themselves disabled after being hired, and once a year thereafter,” again apparently without any regard for the accuracy of such self-labeling.  Additionally, the rule would require each company to document, in detail, for each applicant not hired, why that applicant was not hired.  I wonder whether “Because I already hired someone for the position” would be acceptable.  On top of this, each company would be required annually to (re)justify and to  (re)document “the physical and mental job qualifications for [every] job opening…and to provide an explanation as to why each requirement is related to the job to which it corresponds” and to prove each requirement to be “consistent with business necessity.”

Labor’s estimate of the cost of compliance is cynically understated by two orders of magnitude: they claim a cost of just $81 million for roughly 200,000 companies to comply—a cynical $400 per company.  HR Policy estimates the true cost (not counting productivity costs, which are much harder to estimate) to be in the region of $1.8 billion—a more realistic $9,000 per company.  Of course, not included in Labor’s estimate is the cost of hiring all those bureaucrats into Ms Shiu’s burgeoning empire to monitor compliance.  Nor is the cost of all the lawyers companies will have to retain to defend themselves against all the litigation such a rule is going to encourage.

What constitutes an eligible disability?  Reading, concentrating, thinking, communicating, and interaction with others all are on the list.  I have to wonder at the productivity costs of having to have folks on the payroll specifically to read instructions to employees who can’t read; to do so repeatedly to employees that can’t concentrate long enough to absorb the instructions; to monitor employees who can’t concentrate long enough to complete the job assigned; to guide employees who can’t think clearly enough to understand the instructions they’ve just read or had read to them, or to figure out a task when no monitor is readily available; who can’t explain the trouble they’re having to their peers or supervisors; or who don’t get along with their peers or supervisors.

Oh, and hypocrisy notice: the Federal government itself has only 5% disabled on its payrolls—and the Labor Department’s percentage of disabled employees has decreased every year since President Obama took office, despite Obama’s sharp increase in Labor hiring.

There went the “opportunities.”  Why would a company hire at all in such an environment?  Sounds like a good reason to decline to do business with the Federal government.

Recovery, and Recovery, and Recovery

…creeps in this petty pace.*  Here are some statistics, courtesy of Edward Lazear, writing for The Wall Street Journal.

  • In the three years [after the Great Depression of 1930-33], the economy rebounded with growth rates of 11%, 9%, and 13%, respectively.
  • The current recovery, beginning in 2009, has had growth rates of in 3% and 1.7% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.  The [2012] growth rate looks to be about 2%.
  • From post-WWII to the current recession (1947-2007), the US’ average annual growth rate was 3.4%.
  • Since the ’80s, we’ve had somewhat slower growth, but even here, the average growth rate was 3%.
  • During our current “recovery,” our economy has grown at 2.4%—below both that long-term trend, and the intermediate, nearby trend.
  • Today our economy is 12% smaller than it would have been had we matched our growth trend since 2007.
  • Today our economy is 4 per centage points further off trend line than it was 1Q09 when President Obama’s nearly trillion-dollar “stimulus” effort started.

Historically, the deeper the recession, the stronger the subsequent recovery.  The present “recovery” isn’t robust by any measure.  It’s not even catching up.

Whose policies have been in effect throughout this creeping, petty “recovery?”  Not those of Bush the Younger.

*With apologies to the Thane, Macbeth.

JOBS

Who wants any of these?  Plainly not Progressives and their supporters.

The House of Representatives passed the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act on 8 March by a vote of 390-23 (yes, that’s 158 Democrats in the House that also voted for this bill.  Apparently not all Progressives are anti-JOB).

But now that it’s in the Democratic Party-controlled Senate, where is it?  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to allow it to be debated and voted on unless he got his approved judges voted up in his “jobs for judges” debacle.

Others, Progressives and turf-protecting bureaucrats and unions, also have weighed in in opposition.

SEC Chairman Mary Shapiro, whose regulatory empire would be reduced, however slightly, objects to a provision to exempt companies with annual revenues less than $1 billion from a variety of regulations like Dodd-Frank’s executive compensation rules and duplicative Sarbanes-Oxley audits of internal controls.  Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin joined this particular fray arguing that the agency that watched, while doing nothing, Allen Stanford and Bernie Madoff is somehow needed to oversee the next Bill Gates or Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg.

The accounting firms that stood around and watched Enron and WorldCom are objecting to a reduction in the mandate (i.e., guaranteed business and fees) for their “services”  stemming from an exemption for new companies from critical parts of SOX.

Unions, worried about their own loss of power in a free market environment, object because—well, just because.

Senate Progressives (other than Reid) object because it came from a Republican House.

The Senate vote will be interesting to watch.

An Economy

President Obama is campaigning heavily, these days, on the strength of “his” economic recovery.  Let’s look at this recovery.

Peter Ferrera, cited in The Wall Street Journal, writes

From 1947 to 2007, the U.S. economy averaged real growth of 3.2% a year. At that rate, our GDP would double every 22 years. … Last year, U.S. real economic growth was a paltry 1.7%. The current quarter will probably not be much better.

and

[T]he American economy catching up to its long term economic growth trend line would mean the economy booming over the next 10 years with average annual real growth of 4.4%, and then continuing on after that at 3.2% real annual growth.  Ten years of 4.4% real growth would leave the American standard of living, and GDP, over 50% higher than today.  That is the boom this economy has in it naturally, with the right pro-growth policies just getting the government out of the way, and freeing the economy to grow.

How are Obama’s policies doing?  Typical recession recoveries are faster and higher the deeper the recession from which we’re recovering.  This chart draws a comparison with our nearby history—the recovery from the recession of the ’80s, which was as deep and hard as the present one. The recovery just isn’t there very much.  Unemployment is falling off, and job creation is occurring (more on that below), but it’s anemic.  The zero-line represents full GDP output—our economy is operating on all cylinders—and three years after the ’80s recession’s deepest point, we were at full production.  With the current recession, it’s not even close.  In fact our current growth rate of 2.4% per year since the recession’s formal end in the spring of 2009 is the slowest rate since WWII.

The next three charts look at our labor—our employment—picture in particular.

This chart looks at three different growth rates and the time from today to full employment.  If employers continue to add jobs at the same rate they did between September 2011, when unemployment began to improve, and last January—183,400 jobs per month—the unemployment rate won’t reach even 7.8% for another 20 months, December 2013, and will not full employment for five more years: January 2018.  Even if employers add jobs at their 2005 pace, we won’t reach full employment until mid-2016, and if January’s unusual rate is continued, we’re still looking at mid-2015 before reaching full employment.

This next chart gives another look at our future.

Fewer existing businesses are hiring, and fewer entrepreneurs are starting new businesses; there are fewer jobs for the unemployed.  Moreover, it takes time for startups to grow and to increase their hiring, just as it does existing businesses to recover, resume growing, and increase their own hiring.  Delays now in growth and job creation mean continued delays tomorrow in getting growth going and hiring to increase.

The next chart shows the falling labor participation rate in our current economy.

The present  63.7% of adult Americans active in the labor force (either employed or looking for work) is the lowest participation rate since 1983—when far fewer women were working.  Keep in mind that this historically low participation rate artificially reduces the measured—headline—unemployment rate because folks not looking for work aren’t counted as unemployed.  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate would be 1.25 points higher—9.45%—if labor force participation were at normal levels.

Finally, how does our current recession…recovery…compare with past recoveries?  This last chart is illustrative.

In every prior post-war recession, employment has fully recovered within four years.  As of December 2011—four years after the recession’s onset—payroll employment remains 4.0 percent below the number of workers employed when the recession started in December 2007. Private-sector employment is 4.5 percent below pre-recession levels.  That represents 5.6 million net fewer jobs; 5.2 million of those net job losses occurred in the private sector.

In sum, as The Heritage Foundation points out,

It’s the natural tendency for the economy to grow—and taking credit for its meager improvement is sort of like accepting kudos for the rising and setting of the sun.

We have any sort of recovery at all solely because of that natural tendency to grow.  What are the differences between our current straits and past recession recoveries?  Obama’s policies are of a kind with a prior Progressive President, Franklin Roosevelt.  Both sets of policies centered on expansive, intrusive government, increasingly interfering with the operation of our free market and even going so far as to dictate what individual Americans are permitted—or required—to do in the market place.  All for our own good.  Just as those policies so tragically prolonged the Depression of the ’30s, so are these policies prolonging the current recession’s effects.

On the other hand, when met with shrinking government and reducing personal and business tax rates, as Jack Kennedy (!) and Ronald Reagan, for instance, did, our free market economy responded with rapid, prolonged growth.

I agree with President Obama.  The credit for these three years of historically poor economic performance is entirely his.

The Senate and Jobs

Here’s another aspect of the Democratic Party-controlled Do-Nothing Senate’s attitude toward free markets and private enterprise—that is, non-government—job creation.

Earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D, NV) offered to allow a swift vote on the JOBS Act, a Republican-led jobs bill that passed the House [last year!] with overwhelming bipartisan support, in exchange for Republicans dropping their objections to confirming some of President Obama’s judicial nominees.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, KY) has the right of it.

I think most Senators would rather be working on things that the American people believe would actually help create jobs than to see the Senate embroiled in another controversy which I fear my good friend, the Majority Leader, is seeking to precipitate.

Now the Democrats are ready to talk about jobs for Americans?  But only as a quid pro quo, and not because jobs are something that Americans actually need?

Against what trades is Reid holding the other 25+ House-passed jobs related bills?