Two Economies

We are at a cross-roads in our country and it’s time to force the issue.  We face a generational decision on the kind of economy we want for ourselves—and so the degree of individual freedom we want for ourselves.  We made a choice in the 2010 elections, and it’s time to confirm or repudiate that choice this fall and in the election cycles to come.

There are two basic types of economies available to us: wealth redistribution by government fiat or wealth redistribution by individual choice in a free market.  In this post, I’ll write a little about each type.

Wealth redistribution by government fiat:

When redistribution occurs by fiat, it occurs by taking wealth from some and giving it to others.  I won’t go into the class warfare that this sort of thing can engender, regardless of good intentions.  I’ll write, instead about the outcomes of such redistributions.

This taking of wealth from some necessarily caps the wealth of that some.  Indeed, reducing income inequality often is the explicit goal of this sort of wealth redistribution as that transferred wealth represents “income” to the recipients.

Reducing income inequality, though, ignores a fundamental aspect of human endeavor: we are not endowed with the same degree of talent, of work ethic, of luck.  We do not even have the same desires for what we want out of life.  Thus, income inequality is an inevitable outcome of the application of men to their own efforts and goals.  Capping this—which wealth redistribution necessarily does—in the name of “fairness,” then, prevents those with greater talent or ethic, or even luck, from enjoying to the fullest the fruits of their labors.  By this, it denies those men the equality of opportunity promised them by our social compact.

Worse, this prevents those men even from achieving their fullest potential, because knowing they will have some portion of the results of their efforts taken from them, there is no incentive to excel, to do their best.  Their reach will no longer exceed their grasp.

At least as bad, this also saps the morality of those men: they lose both the incentive and a portion of the means to satisfy their obligation to their fellows.  Government has taken this obligation and the responsibility for its satisfaction away from them and arrogated these to itself.

But what of the recipients of the redistribution: are they not enough better off (the other major purpose of government-forced redistribution) to offset the loss to the successful?  No.  In fact, they’re not any better off at all; they’re worse off.

At this end of the spectrum, incentive to do better is lost: they’ll receive a measure of wealth regardless of their effort.  They lose their sense of obligation to do their best and thereby to not be (or to be as much less of as they can) a burden on the duty (or wealth) of others.  Government as arrogated this responsibility to itself.

These men, also, are denied their promised equal opportunity; they are denied their chance to show the best that is in them—morally as well as economically.

Wealth redistribution by free market individual choice:

The case concerning this is quite straightforward.  First, the answer to an obvious question: how is this redistribution, at all?  The rich get richer, with the seller collecting his price for his good or service, and the poor get poorer for having had to pay those prices.  Actually, not.  That description looks, too narrowly, only at the pecuniary aspect of an exchange of money for a good or service; there is, though, a much broader picture.

Economically, it’s simple.  The desire for those goods and services is demand that stimulates production.  That increased production represents both increased hiring and lower prices.  Those lower prices and higher employment increase demand.  Which generates jobs….  Obviously this won’t go on forever; there will reach a point where the price of labor, which has been increasing as its supply becomes scarcer, makes it uneconomical to continue hiring and producing.  However, that level of full employment is a far higher level of employment than that which obtains in an economy where the wealth passed on to people is as relatively independent of effort as it is in an economy driven by government-forced redistribution.

Thus, wealth is redistributed as a result of the free—voluntary—exchange that exists in a free market.  Those exchanges ultimately create additional jobs, which is increased wealth for all participants.

This voluntary wealth redistribution is short and direct on a personal level, also: rather tautologically, both parties to a (voluntary) transaction are made wealthier by that transaction: each party has obtained something of value to him that he didn’t have before.  After all, if it wasn’t of value, neither party would have been interested in the exchange.  And by completing that exchange, each party now has that thing.

All participants in a régime of free market redistribution are enriched morally, also.  It is in this environment that equality of opportunity is preserved.  It is in this environment that everyone, rich and poor, is able to work to his fullest potential.  It is in this environment that everyone is able to enjoy all of the fruits of his labor.  It is in this environment that everyone retains his moral obligations, the ability to satisfy them (including the obligation of each to help his less fortunate fellows), and by doing so improving themselves.

These men, then, are guaranteed their promised equal opportunity; they are guaranteed their chance to show the best that is in them—morally as well as economically.

Is Anyone Paying Attention?

Over in California, we have this:

  • California Controller John Chiang reported that April 2012 tax collections fell short of that state’s government projections by more than 20%—$2.44 billion.
  • Personal income tax payments were below that state’s government (specifically, Governor Jerry Brown’s) projections by 21.5%—$2 billion.

This, and other “estimating” errors have led to a new budget shortfall estimate of $16 billion—up 77% from an estimate of a bit over $9 billion from just four months ago in January.

To solve this shortfall problem, California’s state government is in the middle of a campaign to get voters who still remain in California to raise the taxes they pay: pushing their sales tax to 7.5% from its current 7.25% and pushing their top marginal income-tax rate to 13.3% from 10.3%.

We also have this going on invis-à-vis California:

  • Since 2009, the business departures from California has gone up by a factor of five.
  • Chief Executive magazine’s annual survey of CEOs, carried in the May issue, found California last in business climate of all the states in the union.

If anyone in that government is paying attention, are they capable of understanding?

Unemployment and Unemployment

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs data were released.  Superficially, they seem encouraging—the unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a point to 8.1%, the lowest rate since the month of President Obama’s inauguration.  Moreover, nonfarm payroll employment rose by net 115,000 (130,000 new private sector jobs against a loss of 15,000 government sector jobs).  But the data behind these numbers are appalling.

By April, the number of people not in the labor force at all had risen to nearly 88.5 million, the highest non-participation rate on record.  Indeed, this is a rise of over half a million (ex-) workers just since the March data release.  This has driven the labor force participation rate—the per centage of our population that hasn’t yet given up and are still actively working or looking for work, to 64.3%, a 30-year low.  Other estimates confirm this: 342,000 people dropped out of the labor force, while the ranks of the unemployed fell by just 173,000.

The Wall Street Journal also reported [emphasis added]

Friday’s report was weak across categories.  Manufacturing employment, an area of strength in recent months, grew by a disappointing 16,000 jobs.  Construction employment fell slightly.  Full-time employment plunged by more than 800,000 jobs.

That’s why that headline unemployment rate dropped.  The unemployment ratio is a fraction consisting of the number of people out of work divided by the number of people working or looking for work, and more people gave up and left the work force—became non-persons in the eyes of the Government’s jobs bean counters—than found jobs.  The number of people left who are working or looking for work shrank precipitously.

A couple of pictures illustrate the story.  (The graphs might be a little hard to read.  The Labor Force Participation Rate graph is in two-year increments from January 1980, and the Persons Not In Labor Force is in three-month increments from December 2007.)

The number of folks wanting to work, that labor force participation rate, rose rapidly in the optimism of the Reagan economic boom into the dot-com bubble.  When the bubble burst, participation rate fell off, but was recovering during Bush the Younger’s second term (when his own tax cuts were starting to take effect) until the Barney Frank housing bubble burst.  And during the Obama administration, the participation rate has fallen off a cliff, as more and more Americans give up due to the current administration’s policy failures and stop looking altogether for work.

Beginning with that housing bubble starting its failure, the population no longer in the work force began running up more steeply, and it’s continued without break throughout the present administration’s set of “economic” policies.

 

h/t GayPatriot

Some Thoughts on Student Debt

Having railed about Federal government debt for a bit, I got interested in student debt—an other end of the scale.  Specifically, I got curious about who borrowed, by chosen major field, and what the outcomes might be of those borrowings, based on salaries for jobs in those fields.  Much of the data in this post come from Steven A Harrast’s paper, Undergraduate Borrowing: A Study of Debtor Students and Their Ability to Retire Undergraduate Loans, which can be found here.  The data in this paper are from 2003-2004, so they predate the current economic dislocation, but the principles, I think, are intact.  The paper has a lot of good information in it; RTWT.

Using a student loan calculator, we can see some expected first year salaries and “affordable debt” suggestions for a number of majors.  I’ve selected four to be used illustratively throughout this post, and I used the calculator’s default values otherwise.

Major

Starting Salary

Maximum Manageable Debt Load

Sociology

$35,300

$35,976

Education

$35,900

$36,587

Engineering

$56,600

$57,683

Mathematics

$50,000

$50,957

These outcomes hold generally: the maximum manageable debt load is roughly the first year’s salary.  More than that is “excessive borrowing;” although this is a squishy limit.  Harrast defined excessive borrowing as “the difference between debt at graduation and lender-recommended debt level,” where the latter is based on an ability to pay 8% of a graduate’s second-year salary.  Others consider excessive debt to be total debt (which would include credit card, mortgage, if any, and the like, in addition to student loan debt) greater than 37% of income, which would lead most lending institutions to decline to lend.  All three definitions lead to substantially the same amount of “excess” for the purposes of this post.

Also, it’s clear that STEM-type majors (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) pay more, and so can borrow more, than do non-STEM majors.

Who incurs excessive student debt?  According to Mark Kantrowitz, of FinAid.org, that breakout looks like this for our example majors.

Major

Per Cent Overborrowing

Sociology

5.7%

Education

4.3%

Engineering

3.5%

Mathematics

3.6%

STEM students do better at managing their greater debts.  And importantly so: the overall average per cent of students excessively borrowing, across all majors, was 4.1%.

It’s also useful to lower the bar a bit and look at the size of excessive debt, given that it exists.  One way of looking at this is to look at the 75th percentile borrowing.

Major

Student Loan Debt at Graduation

Excess Student Loan Debt at Graduation

Sociology

$30,888

$11,795

Education*

$26,944

$7,850

Engineering**

$22,239

$3,146

Mathematics***

N/A

N/A

*Here, an average of Consumer Science and Education and Special Education
**Here, an average of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering
***Data were not provided by Harrast.

Plainly, some jobs are more valuable than others.  More importantly, the rigor associated with learning those jobs seems to correlate well with the ability of students to manage their debt buildup, and of the newly graduated to manage their accrued debt.

As some have asked,

Want to major in gender studies, women’s contemporary literary issues, or African-American history? Feel free, but don’t expect a dime from the US taxpayer. Because you likely won’t be able to pay your debt, and you most likely won’t be able to find a job to support yourself. Which means the degree is essentially worthless. And that is a luxury this country cannot afford any longer.

Jobs

The March Jobs report said there were 120,000 nonfarm jobs added in March, compared to economists’ expectations of 200,000 jobs and some 267,000, 275,000, and 240,000 added in December, January, and February, respectively.  The report also said that the population of folks actively looking for work—the denominator in the headline unemployment rate—shrank by 161,000 to 63.8% American adults as yet more people gave up on our suppressed economy and stopped looking for work.  This participation rate has fallen steadily for the last three years, from its nearby high of 65.8% in January 2009.

The long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks and over) remained at 42.5% of the total unemployed.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000 in the week ended April 7.  This also is the largest jump in a year.

Keep in mind that one month does not make a trend.

But.  Our economic recovery is in full bloom, all right.