Much Ado about Nothing

Oxford Economics is worried about the costs of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as he fights back against the People’s Republic of China’s long economic war (trade, intellectual property theft, technology transfer extortions and thefts, etc) against us.

The move to 25% tariffs on imports from the PRC, coupled with the PRC’s answer of tariffs on its imports from us would cost our economy $29 billion and the global economy some $105 billion by 2020, Oxford Economics claims.  The CBO estimates our GDP to be $22.77 trillion; the projected tariff costs work out to 0.1% of our economy.  Taking the global economy as the OECD’s, the 2017 global GDP was some $49.6 trillion; the projected costs work out to roughly 0.2% of the world’s economy.

Oxford Economics sees all of that amounting to a 0.3% reduction in our projected 2020 GDP and a 0.8% reduction in the PRC’s projected 2020 GDP.  The tariff costs are chump change in our economy and the world’s.  Not so much, though, for the PRC: while our economy is burgeoning, the PRC’s already is stagnating.  The tariff costs are only adding to that slowdown.

Consternation Among Investors

The English Channel island of Guernsey has long been a haven for low tax rates and lower regulation.  Now the island is serving as a bypass of EU regulations mandating transparency in bond transactions.

On Guernsey, those rules don’t apply. A key flashpoint for investors is the use of password-protected websites to restrict access to company financial information. Unlike in the rest of the EU, where companies with publicly listed shares or bonds must make financial reporting readily available to the public, bond issuers in Guernsey can keep such information under virtual lock and key and can restrict who has access.

Some companies dealing through Guernsey’s facility even require nondisclosure agreements be signed before they’ll agree to sell bonds to prospective buyers.

This has authorities in an uproar—naturally, since they object to being challenged by their subjects market participants.  It also has investors’ knickers in a collective twist, though, and there’s the rub.  Martin Reeves, of London-based Legal & General Investment Managers:

It is in everybody’s interest to have equal and transparent disclosure by bond issuers. It is an open question how password-protected websites are justified.

Regarding Reeves’ first claim, of course it is. Information is power, and spread-about information dilutes the power.  Regarding his second claim, though, there’s no question about it: the free market is happy to have such things—else they wouldn’t exist.

The bottom line is this, and it pertains especially in a free market milieu.  There’s no reason for consternation among investors over the bonds issuing from non-transparent Guernsey.  No one—not any government, not any individual—is holding a gun, figuratively or literally, in any investor’s ear, forcing him to buy bonds in Guernsey.

If investors don’t like the lack of transparency, they shouldn’t trade there.  If Guernsey is the only place such secretive bonds are traded, then Guernsey also is the only place where such unassessed and unassessable risk occurs.  If investors don’t like that risk spilling over onto companies publicly traded in markets or exchanges that are more regulated, they should not trade those companies’ securities anywhere.

In fact, they’re putting in peril their fiduciary duty or their personal or families’ wealth when they trade “Guernsey bonds” or securities of companies that peddle bonds there.

Christianity is a Threat

The Chinese Communist Party, through its provincial organ in Henan Province, says so.

The Hebi Municipal Radio Administrative Bureau [hosted] a presentation titled “Christianity’s Enormous Harm on China’s Security,” to party members in the city of Hebi….

Instructive title, that.  The seminarists insisted that the “correct view” is that Christianity (and, I suppose, religion generally), are bent on undermining the Communists’ rule.  Never mind that “render unto Caesar” bit.

Of course, Christianity’s central tenets of conscience, free will, individual responsibility do work out to threats to tyrannical societies like the PRC’s because these fundamental positions are threats to the power of the tyrants that reign over those societies.  Hence the need for the CCP to work so zealously to suppress Christianity and along the way to lock Muslims up in concentration camps and jail Falun Gong followers.

Keep in mind, too, that this is the People’s Republic of China that Progressive-Democratic Party Presidential candidate Joe Biden says is no threat to us.

A Misunderstanding

Senator Cory “Spartacus” Booker (D, NJ) has one in spades. The article at the link was centered on Progressive-Democratic Party Presidential candidate Robert Francis O’Rourke’s mild disagreement with Booker’s position on gun control, but one of the false premises that inform Booker’s misunderstanding was exposed.

Booker argued that just as a driver’s license demonstrates a person’s eligibility and proficiency to drive a car, “a gun license demonstrates that a person is eligible and can meet certain safety and training standards necessary to own a gun.”

First, Booker’s analogy is badly flawed.  A drivers license does not at all demonstrate a person’s eligibility to drive a car. Eligibility to drive comes from the person being a US citizen (or, according to many Progressive-Democrats, from their presence in the US and in a State, whether that presence is legal or not) of a State-determined minimum age, and from no other criteria.  The drivers license then demonstrates a minimum level of proficiency and knowledge of State driving laws. Other restrictions on driving then impact whether the person will be allowed to retain that license; they do not change his eligibility criteria to drive, for getting a license.  Indeed, that license must be granted on a will-issue basis on satisfactory completion of training; licensing courses cannot be used to restrict driving.

On the larger issue, a person is eligible to own a gun and to bear it solely from his status as a citizen of the United States.  Here’s what the 2nd Amendment says:

…the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

There’s nothing in there about eligibility criteria. The only addenda to that are State-mandated criteria related to whether the person has a violent felony history.  All a gun license demonstrates is that State-mandated levels of safety and training standards, which include knowledge of State laws, have been met.  And that license must be granted on a will-issue basis on satisfactory completion of training; licensing courses cannot be used to restrict owning and bearing.

Military Academy Athlete Grads Go Pro Immediately?

President Donald Trump supports this, and he’s actually serious.

I am going to look at doing a waiver for service-academy athletes who can get into the major leagues, like the NFL, hockey, baseball, and they’ll serve their time when they leave professional sports. I imagine that would make recruiting a little bit easier[.]

This is foolish.  These guys got an excellent education at good engineering schools as well as a strong military and leadership training.  In return for paying zilch for that education, they accepted a multi-year commitment to serve on active duty in our armed forces and to begin that service upon graduation.

Delay that service in favor of a professional athletic career?  Let’s leave aside the morality of such a thing and what it says to the less athletically stellar cadets who don’t have professional sports careers in the offing.  Look, instead, at the practical outcome.

A professional baseball career can last for years—a decade or more (ignoring outliers like Cal Ripken), even longer if AAA ball counts for this delay, serving as it does as continued prep for the majors and as rehab opportunities in later stages of a career (more on this in a bit).

A professional football or hockey career lasts quite a bit shorter—because of career-ending injury or accumulation of injuries.  What’s the value of a soldier, airman, marine, or sailor who’s so banged up that he can no longer ply his athlete’s trade by the time he reports for active duty?  Here we include that baseball player sent down for rehab.  What’s the risk he poses to the soldier, airman, marine, or sailor serving beside him in a fight?  What’s the additional medical cost this guy poses to the service required to wait on his appearance for duty?

How much time does such a man have left for his military career if he’s able to complete his professional sport career reasonably injury-free?

On the flip side are these two examples.  David Robinson, Navy Academy grad and basketball star, served his commitment promptly on graduation and then went on to a highly successful NBA career.  He needed no delay.

Napoleon McCallum, Navy Academy grad and football star, served his commitment promptly on graduation and then went on to a highly successful NFL career—until he had a career-ending injury during a Monday Night Football game.  McCallum’s injury, admittedly, was exceptionally gruesome, even for a terminating one, but blown knees that end careers are common in football:

[He suffered a] ruptured artery in his left knee, and tore three ligaments, tore the calf and hamstring from the bone, and suffered nerve damage in the knee. …McCallum’s surgeon told him that there was no chance of him ever being medically cleared to play again.

How fit for military duty would McCallum have been had he had that injury before serving his commitment?

This is a bad idea that needs no further serious consideration.