Trade

I wrote earlier about our GDP number, including the impact on it of our trade gap—specifically our import numbers. Now the other side of that coin has been exposed.

The US trade gap widened in September as exports fell to a five-month low, a sign of weaker demand for US-made goods that underscores concerns about a global economic slowdown.

The trade deficit rose 7.6%…. Exports decreased 1.5% from August while imports were almost unchanged.

Two reports don’t make a trend, but they are suggestive.

Outcomes, Again

Last September, [House Minority Leader, D, CA] Nancy Pelosi warned Americans that a Republican Senate majority would mean that “civilization as we know it would be in jeopardy.”

Now the Republicans have a chance to achieve exactly that. “Civilization” as Democrats know it needs to be thrown onto the tailings pile where it belongs, and American civilization revived. After all, even though Pelosi’s BFF, Secretary of State John Kerry, has said, “In America you have a right to be stupid,” that right does not exist in government officials where the stupidity is so damaging to our entire nation.

Republicans now can begin the process of national recovery by passing specific legislation to revive our economy, bring about true tax reform, correct our immigration failures with a coherent set of bills, get rid of Obamacare and replace it,…; of reviving our nation.

Get to work.

Outcomes

Tuesday’s mid-term elections have the potential to be a sea change in the governance of our country and in the direction we take as a nation. The elections have resulted in a sharp change of control of the Senate to the Republicans, giving them both houses of Congress for the last two years of President Barack Obama’s term; an expansion of House control by 13 seats; a net gain of three (so far) governorships; and an increase in Republican control, depending on how too-close-to-call local races come out, to between 67 and 69 out of 99 of State legislatures. The governorships are especially telling given some particular victories: Scott Walker in Wisconsin, John Kasich in Ohio, Rick Scott in Florida, Bruce Rauner in Illinois, and Larry Hogan in Maryland, among others.

Together, these outcomes represent a stark and clear repudiation by Americans all across our country, in Red States and Blue, of the policies of President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats. This is demonstrated not only by the broad swath of States involved in the Senate and Gubernatorial elections, but especially by the fact that every Representative in the House was up for election—Americans in every district of America had something to say on the matter—and by those state legislature results: Americans in every local district had something to say on the matter.   It’s also demonstrated by the fact that Obama put his policies on the ballot—every single one of them—and the voters said, “No.”

Now Republicans need to do things.

In short order, they need to organize and publish a coherent legislative agenda, as House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R, CA) said on the night of those elections that he wanted them to do. Then, just as quickly, they need to pass legislation with specific, simple, coherent requirements. A good set of bills with which to start would include tax reform, jobs (re-execute, for instance, the 40+ jobs bills the House passed and sent to the Senate, where Majority Leader Harry Reid (D, NV) personally killed them); immigration reform; repeal of Obamacare; a series of bills to restore health insurance and to improve the operation of health insurance and health care systems; approval of the Keystone XL pipeline; and elimination of “green” subsidies (and subsidies for oil and gas companies).

It’s entirely likely that Obama will veto most, if not all, of those bills.

However, if the Republicans in Congress put forward a coherent plan and then act with specifics in the first days and weeks of the new Congressional Session, three things will occur: Republicans will demonstrate that they can govern better, with more coherence, and less intrusion into Americans’ lives than the Democrats have done; our economy finally will take off; and whatever Obama does—sign or veto—will enable the Republicans to shape the 2016 elections on terms favorable to them.

In the meantime, Congressional Republicans need to be alert to, and able to stop, Obama and Reid shenanigans during the Democrats’ lame duck next couple of months. The Senate Democrats, don’t forget, have judgeship confirmations to approve, and they have an Attorney General to confirm, and they have cover for Obama’s immigration travesties to provide, and they have….

Another Case for Tax Reform

British Prime Minister had this to say Thursday (if that link doesn’t work, the Daily Mail has a good summary and paraphrase):

We know the economic case for cutting taxes: in a competitive world we cannot afford to carry on as a bloated, high-taxing, welfare-heavy nation.

We have to direct our resources to incentivising work through tax cuts and not incentivising welfare through extra benefit entitlements.

We have to fight the notion that you can endlessly suck more taxes out of businesses and bite the hand that feeds…. For me, the simplest way to help with living standards is this: allow people to take home more of their own money.

And

Every single pound of public money started as private earning. Every million in the Treasury represents a huge amount of hard work: early morning alarms, long commutes, hours spent on the factory floor, the office, the hospital ward, or the classroom.

The Wall Street Journal rightly offered kudos for this awakening, but they missed a key point.

[T]he case for tax cuts is as much about freedom as it is about spurring growth.

True enough. But freedom is what allows those spurs to exist. Freedom is what allows economic growth to occur. Freedom is what allows prosperity.

In A Separate Report….

Overall household spending [Note: household spending is different from the consumer spending I referenced in yesterday’s article, and this is a different report from the one I referenced yesterday] fell 0.2% from August, the first decline since January and only the third since the recession ended in mid-2009, the Commerce Department said Friday. The drop reflected a big decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as cars.

Falling demand for cars, household appliances, and other big-ticket (read: expensive—have you priced refrigerators or dryers lately?) items: is this a one-time blip or a trend resulting from pent-up demand being momentarily released? The old family beater finally wore out, and the family had to buy another car? That’s consistent with anemic consumer spending generally these last several quarters. Still, it could be a blip, and household spending (not the same as consumer spending, but close enough for the context) could be discovered to have resumed its slow growth when October’s numbers are published.

Meanwhile,

Americans’ overall income—including money from wages, investments, and government aid—climbed 0.2%, the smallest increase of the year.

And

Inflation-adjusted household spending on durable goods fell 1.9% from August, the sharpest decline since September 2009.

That’s at the consistently very low inflation rates, too. This is what we’re actually spending (or not) in terms of buying power—how far our paychecks go—and it’s a long-term trend. These wage and adjusted spending numbers don’t comport with hopes of higher spending, and so of real economic recovery in the near or medium-term future.

And this:

Friday’s report also showed US inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target. The price index for personal consumption expenditures—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure-rose 0.1% from August and 1.4% from a year earlier.

Low inflation is good, but inflation this low is reflective of low demand. See above, regarding income, for an idea of future recovery.