Others’ Thoughts on Politics

Thomas Jefferson:

I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

And

We in America do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate.

Benjamin Franklin:

This will be the best security for maintaining our liberties. A nation of well-informed men who have been taught to know and prize the rights which God has given them cannot be enslaved. It is in the religion of ignorance that tyranny begins.

And

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.

George Washington:

While we are contending for our own liberty, we should be very cautious not to violate the rights of conscience in others, ever considering that God alone is the judge of the hearts of men, and to him only in this case they are answerable.

And

To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.

Patrick Henry:

When the American spirit was in its youth, the language of America was different: Liberty, sir, was the primary object.

And

The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them.

Thomas Paine:

Some writers have so confounded society with government, as to leave little or no distinction between them; whereas they are not only different, but have different origins. Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our happiness POSITIVELY by uniting our affections, the latter NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first a patron, the last a punisher.

Francis Lightfoot Lee:

I feel myself deeply interested in the security and happiness of America, compared with which, the interests of Britain, is as a feather in the scale….

Robert Morris:

I assert boldly that commerce ought to be as free as the air, to place it in the most advantageous state to mankind in general.

John Adams:

All men are born free and independent, and have certain natural, essential, and unalienable rights, among which may be reckoned the right of enjoying and defending their lives and liberties; that of acquiring, possessing, and protecting property; in fine, that of seeking and obtaining their safety and happiness.

Also, from a couple of older guys:

Pericles:

Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you

Plato:

One of the penalties of refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.

And

Those who tell the stories rule society.

An Empirical Demonstration

Investor’s Business Daily provides one.

Renting a 20-foot truck one-way from San Francisco to San Antonio, for example, will cost $1,693. But the U-Haul tab to go in the opposite direction is just $983.

Hmm….

This figure compares, across just a few parameters, the outcome of big government, high taxes, and profligate spending—California—with the outcome of limited government, low taxes, and (more) disciplined spending—Texas.  Texas has many faults, but the routine of government interference with its citizens’ wallets and businesses isn’t among them.

California has become a state that people are increasingly trying to escape, and Texas a state people are increasingly migrating to.

…

A study by the Manhattan Institute found that Californians have been leaving for states with better job prospects, lower taxes and better business climates.

In other words, states that are pursuing the kind of low-tax, limited government, free market policies [President Barack] Obama typically rejects.

The public may have voted to give Obama a second term.  But many people in California are voting with their feet, leaving the state that’s already put in place policies Obama has promised to keep pushing for four more years.

Obamanomics, as California demonstrates—its economy actually shrank sharply in the last four years—are an utter failure.  RTWT.

A Market Parallel

Amity Shlaes has noted some interesting parallels between today’s economic situation and that of 1937, post reelection of another Progressive President (she’s politer than I am).

In this case, “1937” means a market drop similar to the one after the re-election of another Democratic president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1936.

…

[T]he parallels are visible enough to be worth tracing.  They have to do with the danger of big government, and can be captured in a few categories.

Here are those parallels [emphasis added]:

Pre-election spree that sets records.  In the old days, federal spending amounted to about 19 percent or 19.5 percent of gross domestic product. …[from that] federal spending would have dropped back once the worst of the 2008 economic crisis passed.

…even in 2012, when the crisis was long past, the government went on a spree, spending the equivalent of 24.3 percent of the economy, more than the 24.1 percent for the year earlier.

Up until 1936, federal spending flowed at smaller levels than the spending by states and towns combined, with wartime being the exception.  Roosevelt slowly ratcheted up the outlays, and in 1936, Washington spent more than the states and towns.  This shift was dizzying for a country based on the principle of federalism, of strong states.

 

Fearsome attack on the status quo.  In his first news conference on Nov 14, Obama went out of his way to make clear his tax increases would fall on the rich: “What I’m concerned about is not finding ourselves in a situation where the wealthy aren’t paying more or aren’t paying as much as they should.”

Roosevelt was also ferocious, telling the old guard: “I should like to have it said of my first administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second administration that in it these forces met their master.”

When Roosevelt followed through in 1937, both with high taxes and his effort to pack the Supreme Court with more progressives, markets shivered.

Shlaes concludes with

The obvious question is why an announcement by Obama or Roosevelt to cut back just after the election doesn’t reassure those who dislike government expansion.

The answer is that the markets, which observe a giant march forward and then a step backward, don’t believe the step back is permanent.  Giants are giants.  Expansionists tend to revert to expanding government….

In the end, FDR’s Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, learned that lesson:

We have tried spending money.  We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work.  I want to see this country prosper.  I want to see people get a job.  I want to see people get enough to eat.  We have never made good on our promises.  I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started.  And enormous debt to boot.

The Obama administration, unfortunately, has no Treasury Secretary, or anyone else, capable of (re)learning that lesson.

Why should we care about the stock market, though?  The problem with significant drop in overall market stock prices isn’t just one of hammering rich investors and any workaday American with an IRA, a 401(k), or a 403(b) retirement account.  It’s that selling shares in a company is one of two ways in which businesses raise money (the other being borrowing) for product development or business expansion, either of which means prosperity for the company and, oh by the way, more jobs.  A significant market drop, then, closes off one more avenue for business expansion, jobs, and economic recovery.

Happy Thanksgiving

I first posted this in 2011; it warrants repeating.

Today I thought I’d share some thoughts on the matter offered by other folks who are a bit more articulate than I.  In the meantime, be thankful for who we are and where we are: whatever straits we in which we find ourselves, we’re orders of magnitude better off than most everyone else in the world.

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his providence, which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquility, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted, for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed, and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

-George Washington, 3 October 1789

The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God. … No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

-Abraham Lincoln, 3 October 1863

We are profoundly grateful for the blessings bestowed upon us: the preservation of our freedom, so dearly bought and so highly prized; our opportunities for human welfare and happiness, so limitless in their scope; our material prosperity, so far surpassing that of earlier years; and our private spiritual blessings, so deeply cherished by all. For these we offer fervent thanks to God.

-Harry S Truman, 22 November 1950

Perhaps no custom reveals our character as a Nation so clearly as our celebration of Thanksgiving Day. Rooted deeply in our Judeo-Christian heritage, the practice of offering thanksgiving underscores our unshakable belief in God as the foundation of our Nation and our firm reliance upon Him from Whom all blessings flow.

-Ronald W Reagan, 27 November 1986

This Thanksgiving, as we enjoy the company of family and friends, let us gratefully turn our hearts to God, the loving Source of all Life and Liberty. Let us seek His forgiveness for our shortcomings and transgressions and renew our determination to remain a people worthy of His continued favor and protection. Acknowledging our dependence on the Almighty, obeying His Commandments, and reaching out to help those who do not share fully in this Nation’s bounty is the most heartfelt and meaningful answer we can give to the timeless appeal of the Psalmist: ‘O give thanks to the Lord for He is good: for his steadfast love endures forever.’

-George H W Bush, 14 November 1990

And then enjoy yourselves; have plain, raw fun.  That’s not just allowed, it’s a Good in its own right.

Obama’s Economic Policies

…are actively hurting our economy and our businesses—and so us.  Here are two illustrations.

First, The Wall Street Journal:

Half of the nation’s 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of securities filings and conference calls.

Nationwide, business investment in equipment and software—a measure of economic vitality in the corporate sector—stalled in the third quarter for the first time since early 2009.  Corporate investment in new buildings has declined.

…

…business investment fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3%, according to a preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department.  The latest drop included a decline in investment in structures, such as buildings, at a 4.4% annual rate.  Investment in equipment and software stalled after growing at a roughly 5% annual pace in the first six months of the year.

It’s not just Big Business, though, the whole article from which the above excerpt came notwithstanding:

Of the four ways government can principally influence the economy for better or worse—fiscal policy, regulation, monetary policy, and trade—it appears that investors will continue to be forced to rely on monetary policy for help. Taxes will undoubtedly rise for some, and the one effective way the federal government could effectively ease more—regulatory policy—seems less likely now than ever before.  The Wall Street law firm Davis Polk has created a new business of simply keeping track of the seemingly infinite number of rules that will need to be written to complete the process of financial regulation put into place by Dodd-Frank.  Sadly, only 33% of the 398 required rulemakings have been finalized.  (Only 265 rules to go!)  Another 33% have yet to have even been proposed.  Is it any wonder the Fed has had trouble turning excess reserves into effective monetary stimulus?

What are we doing as a company in light of this uncertainty?  We’ve put on hold business expenses short of pencils, and any capital spending we were considering, including an update of the men’s bathroom some have begun to call “the latrine.”  Instead of calling clients and focusing on our research, we are scheduling, probably in vain, conference calls (read fees) with our attorneys and accountants to try to create contingencies against potentially bad outcomes for us in the tax code.  It has forced us to ask ourselves questions that seem at odds with economic growth, like, are there any unintended consequences of employing more than 50 people?

 

h/t for the second for The Spirit of Enterprise