Government as Guarantor of Last Resort

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now preparing to sell bonds that supposedly indemnify us taxpayers from the results of another mortgage market melt-down.

Called Connecticut Avenue Securities by Fannie Mae and Structured Agency Credit Risk by Freddie Mac, the securities are essentially bonds whose performance is tied to that of a pool of mortgages. If the mortgages default, investors in the bonds could lose some or all of their principal.

That’s the claim. There are a number of fallacies to this. One is that Fannie and Freddie still are government controlled. Another is that the government, through the Fannie-Freddie regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has already demonstrated that it will manipulate regulations and pass along actual money to “protect” these agencies from failure.

The largest fallacy, though, is exposed by Lewis Ranieri, who co-invented mortgage-backed securities in his own assessment of this nascent Federal scam:

There’s still a question of whether [the securities sales] can be expanded to really provide the goal of making the government the guarantor of last resort.

Government as guarantor of last resort means us taxpayers aren’t protected from anything that Fannie or Freddie might take a notion to try our luck at.

In the end, though, why should government—which is to say, you and I—be the guarantor of anything in a free market other than that it is, in fact, free, with all transactions freely entered into and with each of the participants in any exchange—and no one else—owning every bit of their part of that exchange?

The Fed and Uncertainty

In a Fox Business piece concerning the impact of future Federal Reserve Bank interest rate hikes on the stock market, this remark stands out for me.

[C]onventional wisdom holds that the more skillful Fed officials are at telegraphing their upcoming rate hikes, the less volatile markets will be once those hikes are announced.

That’s true enough as far as it goes, but the interesting bit is that the more skillful Fed officials are at telegraphing phrase.

Ordinarily, there’s no skill at all involved in making a simple, straightforward statement. One such could be we’ll raise interest rates by these increments, according to this schedule. Those milestones will be adjusted in this way by these factors that we will observe in real time.

That sort of clear, direct statement only takes skill when the speaker is a member of an organization which has institutionalized obfuscation.

The Bernie Sanders Economy

Lots of folks say Bernie Sanders, Democratic Presidential candidate and Socialist Senator from Vermont, wants the American economy to look like social democrat Europe.

Wrong. Look closer to home for the logical outcome of Sanders’ economic policies. Here’s Puerto Rico‘s “economy:”

Government debt has increased by two thirds since 2006…and exceeds 100% of gross national product. … The sales tax increased to 11.5% this year from 7% and next year will turn into a value-added tax. Since 2013 the tax on petroleum—the island’s primary fuel for generating electricity—has quintupled to $15.50 per barrel.

And

Employment laws, such as mandatory 15 days of paid vacation, and stringent job protections provide disincentives to hire. Generous welfare, housing, food stamp and health benefits discourage work. Nearly half of island residents are on Medicaid. A household can rake in 50% more in government assistance than the take-home monthly minimum wage.

The island’s 12.5% unemployment rate is misleading, coming as it does against a labor force participation rate of 40% [sic].

There’s more—lots more—but this is where President Bernie Sanders will take us, and it’s far enough.

Two Babies

Thirty-five years ago (nearly two generations ago), the People’s Republic of China government decreed that families in the PRC could have only one child. Ostensibly, this was to reduce population pressures on the country’s ability to feed itself. It’s also had, though, other consequences. One of them is this:

China has the world’s largest population at 1.37 billion, but its working-age population—those aged 15 to 64—is shrinking. The United Nations projects the number of Chinese people over the age of 65 will jump 85% to 243 million by 2030, up from 131 million this year.

That’s a doubling of the old-age population in just the 15 years it’ll take this year’s newly born babies to reach working age. Is the raise in the number of permitted babies per family to two sufficient to alleviate the problems brought on by the shrinking work force, with its reduced ability to produce goods and services, and food; or the problems brought on by a shrinking work force’s ability to pay for, in any way, the growing (relative to the working population as well as in absolute terms) population of elderly?

Many Chinese couples say the cost of having children is prohibitive, and some will opt to have only one child. A previous relaxation of China’s one-child policy did not lead to a significant increase in baby numbers.

“Many” is more than it sounds; it’s a significant fraction of today’s couples.

On top of that, though, most demographers say it takes 2.1 babies per woman (not just to women in marriages) just to maintain a population at a given level for developed nations. That minimum rate rises in less developed nations, as infant mortality rates rise. The PRC’s new limit of 2 babies per family (not all women) doesn’t reach the replacement rate.

Probably the raise in the limit on the number of permitted babies is insufficient.

Government’s Gotta Regulate What A Man’s Gotta Do

It is taking home buyers longer to get a mortgage, which some in the real-estate industry say is the result of new federal rules meant to make mortgage terms easier to understand.

It wasn’t broke, and mortgages were moving as much apace as this Obama Recovery permitted, but it also wasn’t regulated. Government abhors a control vacuum.

Mortgages took an average of 49 days to close in November…the longest closing time since February 2013….

That’s only a three day increase over October, but it’s an entirely unnecessary and a completely government caused delay.

The rules…require lenders to give borrowers final terms of a loan at least three business days before closing to ensure they have time to understand the agreement.

Never mind that consumers already can walk away from any purchase contract, including mortgage contracts, within three days after signing—the “cooling off” period.

Advocates for the changes say they are a common-sense response to the housing crisis, during which it became apparent that many borrowers didn’t understand the ramifications of terms such as teaser rates or growing principal balances.

Of course a Liberal will say it’s common sense to regulate. It couldn’t possibly be common sense to educate instead.

The outcome of this demand to regulate anything and everything is more than just a delay in closing. Sales of existing homes have fallen sharply, 10.5% in November, the first month these wonderful new regulations have been in place, compared to October.