Some Data on the Obama Economic Recovery

And on Democratic Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s policy impact on that recovery from the Panic of 2008, since Clinton has promised, proudly, to continue and extend President Barack Obama’s (D) economic policies.  These data are via Robert Barro’s (Harvard University economics professor and American Enterprise Institute visiting scholar) piece in The Wall Street Journal.  He and a colleague, Tao Jin, looked at

macroeconomic disasters in 42 countries, featuring 185 contractions in GDP per capita of 10% or more. These contractions are dominated by wartime devastation such as World War I (1914-18) and World War II (1939-45) and financial crises such as the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Among other things, they found that blaming the slow- to non-recovery on the Panic’s severity or on global financial crises, in their gentle phrase, “conflicts with the evidence.”

Among the specifics of their findings:

The growth rate of total nonfarm payrolls averaged 1.7% a year from February 2010 to July 2016, despite the drop in the labor-force participation rate. The post-2009 period is not a jobless recovery; it is a job-filled non-recovery.

And

[T]he drop in the unemployment rate—from 10% in October 2009 to 4.9% in July 2016—has been impressive, though overstated because of the decrease in labor-force participation.

Never mind that half the GDP lost during the contraction is typically recovered within two years of a recovery’s start.

So, what policies led to this failed recovery?  There have been lots, ranging from attacking hydrocarbon-based energy production and the destruction of jobs with the subset of the Democratic administration’s war on coal (and growing war on oil and natural gas), the Obama EPA regulations intruding onto private property (no cattle ponds on private ranches, recall), Labor Department’s and NLRB’s restrictions on non-union labor, and so on.  The primary policy, though, has been this administration’s increase in government transfer payments.

Federal social benefits to persons (things like Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and food stamps) as a fraction of GDP rose from 8.7% in 2007 to 10.9% in 2015.  That’s a 25% rise in the fraction of GDP that’s money taken out of the private economy, washed through a middleman government, and the remainder then passed along to others.  In real dollar terms, that’s an increase from a skosh over $1.3 trillion in 2007 to a skosh under $2 trillion in 2015, an increase of more than 50%.

That’s money not applied to actual economy-stimulating and job-creating activities: free trade, rolling back inefficient regulations, fiscal discipline, and, yes, public infrastructure such as highways and airports.  That’s money not applied to enhancing productivity.

The growth rate of GDP per worker from 2010-15 was 0.5% per year, compared with 1.5% from 1949 to 2009.

Instead, Clinton not only wants more of the same.  She was for the Pacific and Atlantic free trade deals on offer (and one soon to be before Congress) before she lately found it politically expedient to be against them.  She favors increasing regulation—evil Wall Street and political speech are her targets du jour—not reducing it.

Her idea of fiscal discipline is increased spending, partially paid for with higher taxes.  She wants “free” education, paid for with higher taxes; reduced borrower liability for student loans, paid for with higher taxes; free day care, paid for with higher taxes; free health care—single payer, yet (never mind that contradiction)—paid for with higher taxes; free family leave from employment, paid for with higher taxes and higher prices since the employer must pay, also, if only through reduced output and so reduced sales; and on and on.

And that infrastructure work?  She is for that—so long as it’s done by Government approved union labor, and not by the most cost efficient contractors.

The Entire Island

Repair crews worked through the night trying to restore electricity to Puerto Rico’s 3.5 million people early Thursday after a fire at a power plant blacked out the entire U.S. territory.

Officials said they hoped to restore service by morning….

It turns out that they didn’t make by the morning, and the outage extended into a second day—lengthened not just by the severity of the problem, not unique in itself to Puerto Rico, but also by Puerto Rico’s lack of money with which to fund repairs or even parts and equipment to replace the damaged/failed parts and equipment.

I have to wonder about similar vulnerabilities, similar single points of failure, extant on our separated States and other separated territories and within CONUS.  I have to wonder about these vulnerabilities not only in our power distribution grids, but in our communications grids, and cascading from those, in our financial networks and our government effectivity networks.

As Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said,

The system is not designed to withstand a failure of this magnitude.

Neither are any of our systems.  Nor are they designed to any large degree to minimize, if not eliminate, single points of failure.

Is Stamina a Thing?

Maybe.

Republican Party Presidential candidate Donald Trump held two rallies in North Carolina—an important swing state that’s up for grabs so far this election—last Tuesday: one at High Point University and the other 160 miles away in Kenansville (175 miles if he took a route through Chapel Hill).

That same day Democratic Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was scheduled to have a high-roller lunch-time fund raiser—between $2,700 and $100,000 per attendee—in Chapel Hill.  She couldn’t make it and had to beg off.  No reason given, just thanks, anyway.

Is Clinton’s health or stamina up to the task, whether of campaigning or of being President?

Security Issues

In the end, it seems that former Secretary of State and present Democratic Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton isn’t the only one who has them.  Amazingly, former JCS Chairman and former Secretary of State Colin Powell has them, also.

Of course, it’s only Israel, though, so who cares?  Not this reluctant (or so he says) Clinton supporter.

In a private email exchange last year leaked this week by hackers, former Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed Israel’s nuclear weapons capability with a friend, saying the country has 200 warheads.

To be clear: that’s a private, unclassified and unsecured email exchange.  Not even treated as FOUO (which such information plainly is not).

The existence of its weapons program is considered classified information by both the Israeli and US governments.

Naturally,

Powell…told The Associated Press on Friday through a spokeswoman he was referring to public estimates of Israel’s nukes.

Sure.  Of course he was.

Even President Barack Obama’s (D) State Department knows better than this:

Asked about the issue at a briefing Friday, State Department spokesman John Kirby also declined to comment.

“I’m not going to discuss matters of intelligence,” Kirby said.

Again I ask: do any Democrats, Democrat supporters, or closet Democrats care about security?  Other than Admiral Kirby, I mean?

Arrogance and Policies

I will consider it a personal insult, an insult to my legacy if this [black] community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election.

That’s what President Barack Obama (D) said in front of the Congressional Black Caucus last Saturday.

All of Obama’s policies, which Democratic Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton insists she’ll not only continue but extend and expand, are on the ballot this November.  Every single one of them.

Including, especially, those policies of his and his party that leave members of the black (and other minority) community worse off than they were 10 years ago.  Economic policies that have black (and other minority) teenagers at higher unemployment rates than that time ago.  Welfare policies that leave single-parent black (and other minority) families more thoroughly trapped on welfare and in poverty than that time ago.

Add to that list, now, the Democrats’ policy of personal arrogance, of being Better than us lesser mortals.

Because members of the black community cannot be trusted by Democrats to make up their own minds about the issues of this election.  Not at all.  They’re insulting Obama if they don’t follow his judgment instead of their own.