Deal Breaker

Apparently, there’s a complicated, multi-phase “ceasefire” that involves staged releases of terrorist-held hostages and Israeli-held terrorist prisoners that’s being developed. Among the criteria being discussed is Israel ceasing, in the first, six-week, phase, all drone surveillance operations.

Above all else, ceasing drone surveillance must be an absolute deal breaker.

Trust the terrorists not to reposition, including infiltrating back into the central and northern parts of the Strip; or to refit; or to rearm during the ceasefire?

Of course they will, and six weeks is an eternity for accomplishing that, but Israel willfully blinding itself to the movements and resupply efforts would be monumentally stupid and hugely expensive in Israeli blood.

This is a deal that shouldn’t be getting any words at all beyond, “No.”

Israel is winning this Hamas war, if grindingly; now is not the time to call a halt, even temporarily. Now is the time to pile on—and for the Biden administration to get out of the way and join the piling on, at least by covering Israel’s flanks by eliminating the Iranian proxies’ combat sites and weapons caches in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Good That Something is Kicking Them in the Behind

European nations are getting worried about another Donald Trump Presidency. That worry is

prompting some of America’s staunchest allies in Europe to push their neighbors that are more reluctant to spend into further action on defense and security.

To the extent that’s accurate and, if so, it bears serious fruit, that would be good, and ample justification for reelecting Trump.

In a sign that European officials are starting to address their armaments shortages, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on January 23 announced a $1.2 billion multicountry contract for 200,000 155-millimeter artillery shells, a type being heavily used in Ukraine. The shells will be produced in France and Germany and purchased by Spain, Belgium, and Lithuania.

That’s an insultingly puny step that, by itself, can’t be anything more than cynical virtue-signaling. Those 200k shells are a just a day-and-a-half expenditures by both sides combined at Verdun. Verdun was an extreme usage, certainly, but the Ukrainians are facing a much better equipped barbarian army today than the German army was that the French faced then. Those 200k shells might last a week or 10 days on defense; it’s not enough to sustain an offensive.

And what else are the European NATO nations doing?

European leaders are struggling to align against what many see as a severe potential threat to the postwar order and the prosperity that Washington’s security umbrella has brought to the continent. NATO, which turns 75 in April, has allowed Europeans to focus on economic development, confident that the US would repel threats from Moscow or elsewhere.

And

Despite increased European military spending [miniscule as it is—ed.], high-level talks are failing to deliver big results in part because the cost of shifting from US-backed security to a more independent stance would be enormous.

Translation: the European NATO nations are doing little more than continued empty yapping.

And this:

Many European NATO countries say their increases in military spending were prompted more by Russia’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent hostility than by Trump’s threats. Last year, nine of NATO’s 29 European members met the alliance’s target of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense by 2024, compared with just two in 2014 when NATO set the threshold. About half are expected to hit the target this year.

That’s just disingenuous. Of those seven since 2014 who increased their spending, five of them came during the Trump administration or immediately after, with their budgets already set in the last Trump year. And at that, Germany promptly welched and redid its military spending budget downward. Only two acted in response to Russia’s “subsequent hostility”—itself a cynical euphemism for the barbarian’s 1922 invasion of Ukraine.

These nations’ failure to date is their betrayal of their fellow NATO members—they’re holding themselves incapable of responding materially to an attack on a fellow member. Their failure to date is a betrayal of their own citizens—they’re holding themselves incapable of responding to an attack on themselves.

Joe Biden Had A Deal

Progressive-Democrat President Joe Biden had a deal with Venezuela’s MFWIC, Nicolás Maduro: if Maduro would allow Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader, to run in a free, unfettered election for the Venezuelan office of President, Biden would lift the oil and gas sanctions former President Donald Trump (R) had imposed over the Maduro government’s continued and rank misbehaviors.

And so it came to pass that Biden lifted those sanctions.

However.

On Thursday Venezuela’s president of the national assembly said Ms Machado won’t be allowed to run. The next day Mr Maduro’s hand-picked Supreme Court echoed that declaration, upholding the ban, with charges that she had engaged in conspiracies against the regime. The only “conspiracy” is that she opposes the regime.

Who benefits from the deal that lifted the oil sanctions? Not the US. Venezuela’s government men and women do. The People’s Republic of China does.

Either Joe Biden is incapable of matching wits with a thuggish dictator’s machinations, or he knew this would be the outcome, and he agreed the deal anyway. Either way, Joe Biden is unfit for a second term.

The PRC Doesn’t Want to Lead the World?

That’s the claim of Michael Singh, Washington Institute for Near East Policy‘s Glazer Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East Director, in his Sunday Wall Street Journal op-ed.

I disagree, beginning with his subheadline:

China doesn’t aspire to lead the world, much less to establish peace, but only to undermine the US.

Only that last is accurate. The PRC most assuredly does intend to “lead the world,” and to do so by overriding and replacing us. Xi has said as much regarding replacing us in other venues.

Singh added this near the end of his piece:

A China that aimed to replace the US-led international order with one of its own devising might see….

No, those “opportunities” are irrelevant by being too soon and too far away to be moves by the PRC just yet. The PRC is focused on the South China Sea and its coming invasion of the Republic of China. Succeed there, as it’s already doing in the Sea, thereby driving the US out of the Western Pacific and taking control of the sea lines of commerce on which Japan and Korea depend for their very independence, and on which we so heavily depend, with 40% of our international economic activity coming through those lanes to our West Coast, and our nation loses credibility globally.

At that point, it’ll be time to move in on the ME and Africa, and then a meek Europe.

With each success, the PRC will be able to further isolate us and to exert increasing pressure on our foreign policy, potentiating our retreat from the world.

What Comes After the Hamas War in the Gaza Strip?

The Wall Street Journal tried to address this question last Thursday. As you might imagine, I have thoughts.

Biden administration officials say the path toward a more stable Middle East goes through the ruins of Gaza.

That’s not far wrong.

The latest blows to the White House plans are the persistent attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen against international shipping in the Red Sea….

No, the blow here is in Biden’s timid response to the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping. The paucity of serious response to the terrorists is empirically demonstrated by the Houthis’ continued attacks on that shipping, escalated by their targeting US Navy ships, also.

US goals for the region require forging a consensus on who will secure and rebuild Gaza after the Israeli invasion.

Biden/Blinken’s goal for a PLA/PA governance of the Gaza strip is dangerously stupid. Aside from the fact that that gang has already failed in the Gaza Strip and was run out on a rail years ago, the PLA/PA is just another terrorist organization.

Gaza Strip governance should be built up from the Abraham Accord nations, less Israel, with Egypt and Jordan joining those Accord nations.