Of course this depends on how accurately the press is reporting an unnamed official’s “readout” of what the press alleges is the Memorandum of Understanding between us and Iran regarding the Iran war. Adding skepticism to the accuracy of this readout is Iran’s insistence that the text of the MOU not be released yet.
Paragraph 1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this memorandum of understanding, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
WSJ analysis
The inclusion of Lebanon is highly controversial in Israel, which is fighting a war there with Hezbollah. This official version includes tougher language on Lebanon’s sovereignty.
It’s more than controversial. The inclusion of Lebanon in this MOU is Trump’s mistake. The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is entirely separate from the conflict between the US and Israel (and now US only) and Iran, and it should have been kept so.
Paragraph 2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
WSJ analysis
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began the war calling on Iranians to overthrow the regime, a goal that faded as the government in Tehran held firm.
This is so blatantly wrong that the WSJ‘s “annotators” can only be taken as lying. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu (whose commentary would be irrelevant, anyway) never called for regime change—they—Trump—only said that it would be nice, and “here’s an opportunity for the Iranian people.”
Paragraph 5. Upon the signing of this memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be reinstated. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
WSJ analysis
Iran’s main obligation under the deal, lifting its chokehold on the strait. The updated version says Iran agrees not to charge fees for transit for 60 days and blesses an Iranian plan to work with Oman on the future administration of the strait, but says they must involve other Gulf states in the discussion.
This is Trump’s mistake. He needed to insist on Iran openly acknowledging the international waters characteristic of the Strait. At most, at this point, he should not have agreed to any sort of consortium involving Iran for “managing” the Strait.