What Hath the Kerry/Obama Axis Wrought?

Hamas, a terrorist organization that has murdered thousands of Israelis with random rocket shots into urban areas, at children’s schools, etc, has joined forces with Fatah, the sort-of government of Palestine to form a unity government.

Given Hamas’ declared intent to destroy Israel as a polity, as a society, and as a people, this unity government will be unified in its efforts to destroy Israel. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted from this

He [Mahmoud Abbas, Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization] must choose. Does he want reconciliation of Hamas, or peace with Israel? He can have one but not both.

Appallingly, no one in the White House or in State had a glimmer that this was coming.

The unity pact, coming days before the April 29 expiration date for the American-brokered peace talks that have been the mainstay of Secretary of State John Kerry’s tenure, surprised officials in Washington….

It’s going to be a long two-plus years. For us, and for Israel.

Feckless

I was going to title this post “Feckless Foreign Policy,” but I hesitate to call this administration’s…something…”policy;” although, it certainly is foreign to good sense.

Our CNO, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, answered a question back in February from a Philippine journalist (it’s only just coming to light in the US—so much for a pivot in the general direction of Asia) concerning a hypothetical, an event in which the People’s Republic of China seized Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

Of course we would help you. … I don’t know what that help would be specifically. I mean, we have an obligation because we have a treaty. But I don’t know in what capacity that help is.

I don’t know what’s more worrisome—that our CNO would have this tenuous a grasp, or that he was speaking his Commander-in-Chief’s words.

But What Are You Actually Going To Do, Mr Obama?

President Barack Obama sent his most important sheriff, Vice President Joe Biden, to Ukraine Tuesday to offer American support to its new government. Biden had some fine words:

The opportunity to generate a united Ukraine and getting it right is within your grasp. And we want to be your partner and friend in the project. We’re ready to assist.

And

You face some very daunting problems and some might say humiliating threats are taking place[.]

Well, NSS. What are you going to do about that?

And

I want you to know I do not underestimate the incredible pressure you all are under. I do not underestimate the challenges you all face. And I do not underestimate the frustration you all must feel when someone like me comes along to say what a great opportunity this is for you all.

Awfully astute of you, old boy.

Again, I ask: what are you actually going to do, Messrs Obama and Biden? Besides spout pretty words, I mean, or make laughable moves against empty bank accounts.

A Thought on Foreign Policy

President Barack Obama gave a moment of his time for a word about Russia in a recent CBS News interview.

We don’t need a war.  What we do need is that countries like Ukraine can have relationships with their neighbors.  [And not have those neighbors]…violate their sovereignty.

Carol E Lee and Colleen McCain Nelson wrote in The Wall Street Journal wrote shortly after that interview,

A protracted US standoff with Russia, which senior US officials said they now anticipate, would raise questions about Moscow’s cooperation on the unrest in Syria and curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
…
In Asia, US relations with China would become vital to offsetting declining ties with Russia…

And

US officials said they now plan for Mr Obama to spend much more time on Europe than he had intended….

I have some thoughts about Obama’s…musings.

We’ll have a war, whether we need it or not, if we don’t stop acquiescing to Russia, which is all that our barely noticeable “economic” “sanctions” amount to.  Russia’s next move is to run over Moldavia, and then on to the Baltics, then Poland.  Those last four are NATO members whom we’re treaty- and honor-bound to defend (just as we are Ukraine—that Belgrade Memorandum thing.  We’re doing well on that one, aren’t we?).  Or we abjectly surrender Europe to a resurgent Russia.  This is the same situation that faced France and Great Britain as NAZI Germany successively overran its neighbors.

Regarding “unrest” in Syria (?? Jeffrey Dahmer was just having the occasional snack?) and Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons, we’ve never had cooperation from Russia.  Indeed, the Russians actively are arming and replenishing al Assad’s forces, and they’re selling Iran nuclear reactors when they’re not helping the Iranians build their own.  We don’t have any cooperation from Russia vis-à-vis northern Korea’s nuclear weapons program or their attempts to sell their weapons and nuclear technology to others, either, a matter those senior officials of Obama’s carefully omitted to mention.  What is there to lose, then, from a protracted standoff with Russia in this arena?

On playing off the People’s Republic of China against Russia: how, exactly, does such a playing off become vital, and what is there to offset?  It would be nice to play one against the other, certainly, but it’s not necessary, and (eliding the enmity between the two) given PRC aggressive acquisitiveness, encouraging its military adventurism anywhere is not optimal.

Nor is there anything to play off economically.  Russia has nothing we need or want in trade goods, and while the PRC could be an effective trading partner, they won’t be until they stop being intellectual property thieves, and stop trying to use economics for extortion, as they attempted to do with rare earth shipments (sort of like Russia already has pulled, repeatedly, with its oil and gas).

The assumption that we can’t deal with both, separately and as they, are is a false premise.

Finally, there’s this:

US officials said they now plan for Mr Obama to spend much more time on Europe than he had intended….  …  That, in turn, complicates Mr Obama’s promised focus on Asia….

Again, why?  Is this another example of Obama’s arrogance–he thinks he’s better at foreign relations than his foreign relations experts in State?  Never mind that State has the manpower to walk and chew gum simultaneously, even to deal with Russia and the PRC simultaneously?

If Obama doesn’t think his extended “staff” throughout the Executive Branch, particularly in State and Defense, are up the task, why are we spending taxpayer money on their salaries?

Russia Reneges on Ukraine

And, no, I’m not talking about the Belgrade Memorandum, in which Russia, among others, agreed to guarantee Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for Ukraine turning over its then-third largest in the world nuclear weapons arsenal to Russia.

I’m talking about the just signed—by Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the US—agreement pretending to “neutraliz[e] a crisis that has brought Ukraine to the brink of civil war.”  Among other things, that agreement called for “dissidents” to depart from the Ukraine government buildings that they had seized in eastern Ukraine.

However.

Denis Pushilin, the leader of the uprising that calls itself the People’s Republic of Donetsk, said at a news conference in the southeast city’s seized administration building that the activists won’t exit until the new leaders in Kiev leave the government he says they have been occupying….

“After that, we’ll also agree to do it,” Mr. Pushilin said.  Instead, he said he and other activists in the building are continuing to prepare for a referendum on the southeast Ukraine region’s future that he says they intend to hold by May 11.

That referendum for which Vladimir Putin’s representative in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk is pushing so hard is another of Putin’s demands: he’s threatened to deepen his invasion of Ukraine and occupy eastern and southern Ukraine, as he’s already done the Ukrainian oblast of Crimea, if those other oblasts aren’t allowed to be separate “autonomous” regions.  That threat is made manifest by his having amassed some 50,000 Russian soldiers, armor, artillery, and combat aircraft just a few short miles from the eastern Ukrainian border with Russia.  That threat is made manifest by his having infiltrated special operations forces into eastern and southern Ukraine to drive and to support these building occupations—the same tactic he used to seize Crimea.

And now his representative is refusing to honor the “agreement” his employer has signed.

Only an idiot or a naïf could sit in the White House or in Brussels and think Putin would keep his signed word.