Silliness

President Donald Trump (R) has directed DoD to begin nuclear weapons testing. It’s unclear, at this point, whether he wants to test the existing arsenal or test delivery systems under development or to be developed.

Rhode Island’s Progressive-Democratic Senator Jack Reed has the present installment of silliness, as paraphrased by The Wall Street Journal.

[B]reaking the testing moratorium would prompt Moscow and Beijing to restart full-fledged testing.
US nuclear testing, he added, would also provide justification for Pakistan, India, and North Korea, which last tested in 2017, “to expand their own testing regimes, destabilizing an already fragile global nonproliferation architecture.”

Russia already is in the early stages of full-fledged testing, as evidenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bragging about his new nuclear hypersonic missiles, nuclear-powered nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and nuclear-armed torpedoes. The People’s Republic of China is expanding its own nuclear arsenal as fast as it can; such expansion doesn’t occur without testing.

Pakistan, India, northern Korea? The last has shown no restraint in testing nuclear missiles; it’s not even bound by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Baby Kim’s only reason for pausing is his publicly stated decision to focus on parallel development of his conventional forces. Pakistan and India have nuclear arsenals aimed at each other, and India faces a nuclear-armed and threatening enemy in the PRC. Neither Pakistan nor India are members of the NPT. There should be no doubt they’ll engage in testing as they develop their arsenals.

Demanding Instant Results

The Trump administration has threatened tariffs, raised and lowered them (though rarely as much as they were raised), and concluded on-again, off-again tariff agreements with the People’s Republic of China. The bulk of these moves have come within the opening months of Trump II, even though some moves were made during Trump I.

The good editors at The Wall Street Journal are taking a dim view of this. The opening of their lede:

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck their third trade truce in a year on Thursday, and the best we can say is that the deal averted more economic damage.

Later in the piece, they offered this…truism:

One lesson here is that trade wars aren’t easy to win, especially against a peer competitor.

To which I say, “Patience, Grasshoppers.”

Wars—and the PRC has been fighting this economic war with us for lots of years, even if we’ve been slow to recognize that—are rarely over in a day. WWI was fought over four years, and WWII took eight years out of our globe’s weal and life. Looking farther back was the 30 Years War and the 100 Years War. The barbarian’s 3-day invasion of Ukraine now is approaching its 4th year. Over in what is now the PRC, the period of the Warring States lasted 250 years, and the century of humiliation that the PRC still remembers (the opium wars were in the beginning of that period) lasted…100 years and a bit more.

The men and women of the PRC government take a long view of things, even a generational view. It would be good were the changing men and women of our government to take a similarly long view. The WSJ editorial board could contribute by doing the same.

Trump’s moves may, indeed, end up with no material net effect, or they may end in national disaster, or they may end in a renewed and refreshed century of Pax Americana. It’s years too early to tell.