Tax Cuts, Deficits, and Economic Growth

The hype is that the tax cuts enacted at the end of last year will lead to trillion dollar Federal government deficits.

On the other hand, there’s this bit about economic growth in the CBO’s report that also carried that deficit forecast [emphasis in the original].

  • Last June, the CBO said GDP growth for 2018 would be just 2%. Now it figures growth will be 3.3%—a significant upward revision. It also boosted its forecast for 2019 from a meager 1.5% to a respectable 2.4%.
  • [T]he CBO now expects GDP to be $6.1 trillion bigger by 2027 than it did before the tax cuts.
  • before accounting for economic growth, the tax cuts Trump signed into law late last year would cut federal revenues by $1.69 trillion from 2018-2027.
    But it goes on to say that higher rate of GDP growth will produce $1.1 trillion in new revenues. In other words, 65% of the tax cuts are paid for by extra economic growth.
  • CBO now expects GDP to be $6.1 trillion bigger by 2027 than it did before the tax cuts.

Blame tax cuts for deficits?  No, Federal government deficits are caused by the Federal government spending more than it takes in from its various revenue sources, of which taxes are a prominent part.  And there’s still no concrete justification for the spending levels, just glittering generalities.  And every special interest has an especially sparkling generality to justify its spending.

Here’s some tax cut-created spending reduction (because of economic growth and the resulting increased prosperity of some of our poorer friends, not because of any Congressional courage in doing outright cutting):

[F]aster growth will also reduce federal entitlement spending keyed to the economy—unemployment insurance, food stamps, welfare and the like—by $150 billion, the CBO says.

But increasing prosperity isn’t a proper topic for hyping.


ht/ Powerline

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